Assess market opportunity without false TAM precision

Opportunity evidence stack and sensitivity bands

Build the opportunity from reachable decisions

A national market total says little about the first buyers a Market can serve. Start with a segment, a decision event and a reachable territory. Record observed buyer or supply signals separately from adoption, price and conversion assumptions. A wide range is honest when the source base is thin; a precise point estimate can conceal the uncertainty that actually controls the investment.

1. Start with the actual buyer segment and decision event, not a national industry total.
2. Separate observed volume from model inputs such as adoption and price.
3. Identify the assumption whose variation most changes the decision.

Find the assumption that matters

Vary one model input at a time and note where the next action changes. If modest conversion changes erase the case, test conversion before adding more provider profiles. The public Launch Case includes commercial sensitivity as a distinct component of the Decision Brief. Its role is to guide a bounded research choice, not to turn a spreadsheet outcome into a measured traffic, revenue or demand claim.

Stress-test the route before the total

If the proposed Market serves a narrow buyer segment, the decision may depend more on whether useful sources can be maintained than on a large top-down revenue number. Build a small range for reachable buyers and compare it with the cost of verified profiles and ongoing corrections. Mark every adoption and price value as modelled. If a modest change in source cost or buyer uptake reverses the conclusion, that is the next research priority. A more precise industry TAM will not repair the decisive unknown.

Use ranges when the evidence is thin

A wide range is not a defect if the underlying evidence is thin. Giving a narrow number without direct measurements is the defect.